THE IRAN DILEMMA - AT 6:46 P.M. ET:  Anyone hoping for a firm American response to the Democratic uprising underway in Iran received a disappointment this afternoon when the White House said that the United States would deal with the Iran we have, not the Iran we'd hoped for.  That's standard diplomatic prune juice for "Nothing has changed."  Our "engagement" with the regime will continue.  Hey, what's a stolen election and some rioting in the streets?  If Chicago can do it, so can Tehran!

Michael J. Totten, who's done such wonderful online reporting from Iraq, weighs in with a thoughtful analysis of our dilemma, published at Contentions:

Right now the regime may be sticking its proverbial finger in the wind to sense what a foreign reaction to a more ferocious domestic response might look like. It’s somewhat surprising that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps hasn’t already gunned down a substantial number of people. Surely its commanders have at least considered massacring dissidents as in Tienanmen Square. If they feel they might get away with it because no one outside Iran is willing to stop them – which is exactly what happened in Burma last year – silence from the White House might actually increase the likelihood of something monstrous happening.

COMMENT:  The Obamans are trapped by their own words.  They spent a good chunk of the last two years, lounging in their pseudo-sophisticated university parlors, laughing at George W. Bush for trying to promote democracy.  Now, when democracy can use a boost, they are essentially silent.  They will promote this as "realism."

June 15, 2009